Quote from: F_c_O on November 16, 2015, 10:03:56 AM
I want to think that ISIS will eventually break down due to its own madness and impossibility. They tend to burn lot of bridges for potential allies with all that brutality (you might be doing something wrong when even other islamist extremists stop working with you due to your actions) and in long run, their system seems to be quite unsustainable.
These are good points. As I understand it, ISIS were actually kicked out of Al Qaeda for being too full on. But I also understand overtures have been made between the two organisations again. Alliances stand or fall on expediency, and I think "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" is originally an Arabic slogan. In any case, if ISIS are the current top dogs it will attract others to them.
Mind you, I have wondered in the past how ISIS would deal with, for example, Boko Haram. Racism between Arabs and Africans has been sore for centuries.
As for sustainability, I tend to think that's an issue too. At this stage it's impossible for a lay observer like me to call. Probably for professionals, too. But it's not like there aren't any precedents. I think of the Russian revolution - they just took over entire infrastructures, and yes, ran them to the ground, but controlled them nonetheless while building new ones. And I don't know if ISIS have the same class scruples the communists did, so keeping managers in charge of factories, for example, might not be such a big deal for them.
Obviously I don't know enough to say, I'm just speculating based on my meager knowledge. But in short, I also like to think they've bitten off more than they can chew. Some pundits have suggested the fact that they're re-resorting to terrorism is a sign they're feeling weak with their caliphate. Maybe.