Quote from: Cementimental on March 13, 2020, 04:02:41 PM
https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/
"40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months."
China 80,815 cases population 1,437,616,423
0.005% - is my maths bad?
Jordan Shlain is an American physician and entrepreneur. A practicing primary care physician and the chairman and founder of Private Medical, a family office for health and medicine, and HealthLoop, a cloud-based clinical engagement platform, he lectures on subjects related to public policy, economics, and new models of delivering health care
What's below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu's average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that's 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
Stuart C. Ray
Vice Chair of Medicine for Data Integrity & Analytics
I am concerned that the estimate of 1.5 million deaths is based on SEVERELY flawed equivalence of "case" with "infection".I agree with the case fatality rate (CFR) estimate of 0.4-2.0% (and that it'll probably come out to be close to 1%).It also seems reasonable to guess that the incidence over the next 12-18 months could be 160 million infections.HOWEVER, the CFR definition is based on symptomatic cases, and does not include asymptomatic infections, which may well exceed the number of symptomatic cases. It's very likely that when we have widespread serology (antibody test) results we'll learn that ~half of infections are asymptomatic. I'm surprised that anyone paying close attention would make an error like this, so I wonder if I'm missing something - but I think the mortality estimate is based on seriously flawed logic.
